Forecasting Using Targeted Diffusion Indexes

The simplicity of the standard diffusion index model of Stock and Watson has certainly contributed to its success among practitioners resulting in a growing body of literature on factor-augmented forecasts. However, as pointed out by Bai and Ng, the ranked factors considered in the forecasting equation depend neither on the variable to be forecasted nor on the forecasting horizon. We propose a refinement of the standard approach that retains the computational simplicity while coping with this limitation. Our approach consists of generating a weighted average of all the principal components, the weights depending both on the eigenvalues of the sample correlation matrix and on the covariance between the estimated factor and the targeted variable at the relevant horizon. This "targeted diffusion index" approach is applied to US data and the results show that it outperforms considerably the standard approach in forecasting several major macroeconomic series. Moreover, the improvement is more significant in the final part of the forecasting evaluation period.

Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area

There has been a growing interest on inflation perceptions in the euro area, in particular, following the euro cash changeover. It has been pointed out that a gap emerged between observed and perceived inflation since the introduction of the euro notes and coins. Such a statement relies on the fact that inflation perceptions, measured by the well-known balance statistic from the European Commission's consumer survey, hiked after January 2002 and remained high thereafter, as opposed to the observed inflation, which has remained fairly stable. In this paper, we discuss the issue of inflation perceptions measurement, by comparing the balance statistic with an alternative refined measure, which is computed using the probability method. We argue that the balance statistic should be used carefully, as it can induce to misleading conclusions. In fact, we provide, for both euro area and country level, evidence showing that, using the proposed alternative measure, the breakdown in the relationship between observed and perceived inflation did not occur at the time of the euro cash changeover.

Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models with global and group-specific factors

For an approximate factor model, in a static representation, with a common component comprising global factors and factors specific to groups of variables, the consistency of the principal components estimator is discussed. An extension of the well known Bai and Ng criteria is proposed for determining the number of global and group-specific factors. The consistency of the suggested criteria is established and the small sample properties are assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. As an empirical illustration, the proposed criteria is applied to estimate the number of global and country-specific macroeconomic factors for the major euro area countries.

Inflation expectations in the euro area: Are consumers rational?

In this paper, we propose a quantitative measure for inflation expectations based on consumer survey data. Thereafter, we proceed to testing the rationality assumption. This issue is of noteworthy interest in its own as it is commonly assumed in the theoretical modelling literature that the rational expectations hypothesis holds. This analysis is conducted for the euro area as a whole, as well as for several member countries, using a sample covering the last two decades. Moreover, we also assess if the conclusions hold when one focuses on the post-euro introduction period.

Illness control and knowledge evaluation on individuals with diabetes mellitus

The Diabetes Mellitus is a disease without cure which affects approximately a half million of Portuguese people. There is an epidemic expansion and appears like the source or motive of several healthy problems. It is a complex disease to control due to numerous factors, in which, the own patient’s care, inadequate food, the sedentarism, the lack of knowledge of the consequences, and others. The main objectives of this work are to evaluate the present glucose in the blood in the collect day; to evaluate the glycol haemoglobin (HbA1c); to evaluate the patient’s knowledge height and care according the diabetes; to report the diary glucose and the glycol haemoglobin rates with the disease knowledge. The study occurs with 54 diabetic individuals of type 2, no dependents of insulin, who are treated in the diabetology appointment from the “Centro Hospitalar Cova da Beira”, both sexes, with ages from 48 to 92. The analyses of the results, reveals in the studied sample that a glycaemia rate was bigger than it was expected for these diseased people, on the other hand, the HbA1c, is in an acceptable rate; there was a very low correlation between the glycaemia and HbA1c ; we also checked that the knowledge don’t set apart according the gender and age and the knowledge don’t influence the glycaemia rates nor the HbA1c

The role of attention in the processing of emotional vocalizations: ERP insights

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia, (área de especialização em Psicologia Clínica e da Saúde)Identificar rapidamente as emoções transmitidas pela voz e pelas faces dos outros é fundamental para um funcionamento social adequado. Vários estudos comportamentais e electrofisiológicos analisaram o processamento dos sinais usados na comunicação emocional. Contudo, a maioria utilizou faces ou palavras faladas como estímulos. Assim, ainda pouco se sabe sobre os correlatos neuronais e o desenvolvimento temporal do processamento de vocalizações não-verbais. O presente estudo usou a técnica de ERP (potenciais relacionados com eventos) para estudar o processamento de vocalizações não-verbais emocionais (alegria e raiva) e neutras num estado tardio do processamento. O componente de onda P300 foi analisado. Foi descoberto um efeito modulatório da emoção sobre a amplitude deste. Vocalizações de alegria e raiva evocaram amplitudes mais positivas para o componente P300 em comparação com neutras. Mais, foi encontrado um efeito do contexto emocional no processamento de sons neutros. Vocalizações de neutralidade num contexto de raiva evocaram um componente P300 de amplitude mais positiva em comparação com vocalizações de neutralidade num contexto de alegria. Adicionalmente, foi observada uma diferença de género: verificou-se uma amplitude mais positiva do P300 para mulheres. Estes resultados sugerem um efeito da valência dos estímulos a um nível atencional e de memória imediata, indexado pelo componente P300.Rapidly and effectively identifying the emotions conveyed by others’ faces and voices is fundamental for an adequate social functioning. Several behavioral and electrophysiological studies have analyzed the processing of emotional communication signals. Nonetheless, the majority used faces or spoken words as stimuli. Yet, little is known about the neural correlates and temporal course of the processing of non-verbal vocalizations. The present study used the ERP (Event-Related Potential) methodology to study the processing of non-verbal emotional (angry and happy) versus neutral vocalizations at a later stage of processing. The P300 component was analyzed. Its amplitude was differently modulated as a function of emotion. Angry and happy vocalizations elicited more positive amplitudes for the P300 component in comparison with neutral ones. Furthermore, emotional context was found to have an effect on the processing of neutral sounds. Neutral vocalizations in an angry context elicited a more positive amplitude P300, in comparison to neutral vocalizations in a happy context. Furthermore, a gender difference was observed: the P300 amplitude was found to be more positive for female relative to male participants. Together, these findings suggest an effect of stimulus (non-verbal vocalizations) valence at an attentional and immediate memory level, as indexed by the P300 component

New administration formula of parasiticide fungi spores to prevent infection by gastrointestinal nematodes in pasturing horses

Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina VeterináriaAnthelmintic resistance in horses has increased in recent years and the continuous search for alternative control methods has led to the development of complementary approaches such as biological control. This approach can make use of parasiticide fungi, such as Duddingtonia flagrans and Mucor circinelloides, in parasite population control and recent research has been focused on the development of new administration methods. Following this line of research, a new and alternative formula has been developed by using a lyophilized product that contained both D. flagrans and M. circinelloides spores for the control of gastrointestinal nematodes in horses. After the product manufacture and the normal spore morphology were assessed, these were tested for in vitro growth. A total of 20 Petri dishes were assembled with a mix of 0.1 g of product and 0.5 ml of water in solid media. The assembled plaques were kept at 25ºC in total darkness and all showed the development of new fungi spores after 10 days. Following the in vitro assessment, the product was administered per os to horses in order to observe their effect in the faecal egg count (FEC) of eggs per gram (EPG). Thus, one group of 5 horses in a pasture was chosen to receive 10 g of product (with M. circinelloides spores and a total of around 105 D. flagrans chlamydospores per horse), 3 days a week starting in September, and another group of 7 horses in an adjacent pasture remained as control. Following treatment with Ivermectin pour-on in September 2017, a faecal sample was collected from each horse on a monthly basis and FEC was assessed using a Modified McMaster technique. Only gastrointestinal nematode eggs, namely strongyle eggs, were observed with this technique. The EPG average from each group was compared for each individual month and overall to see the reduction effect achieved with the fungi treatment. Statistically significant differences were found between the two groups in February (72% reduction), March (64% reduction), and overall, 66% reduction. The horses in the test group only reached a cut-off value of 300 EPG two months after the horses in the control group. In November and January, faecal culture method was applied to all faecal samples, showing only the presence of cyathostomin larvae. This study allowed the successful development of a new formula for the administration of parasiticide fungi to horses, based on lyophilized product, which increases the possibilities for future product development and application. New and improved ways of biological control should be developed and implemented to increase parasite control and reduce anthelmintic resistance cases.RESUMO - NOVA FÓRMULA DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO DE FUNGOS PARASITICIDAS PARA PREVENIR INFEÇÃO POR NEMÁTODES GASTROINTESTINAIS EM CAVALOS DE PASTOREIO (LUGO, ESPANHA) - A resistência a anti-helmínticos em cavalos tem vindo a aumentar recentemente e a procura por métodos de controlo alternativos levou ao desenvolvimento de abordagens complementares como o controlo biológico. Esta abordagem usa fungos parasiticidas, como Duddingtonia flagrans e Mucor circinelloides, no controlo da população parasitária e estudos recentes têm-se focado no desenvolvimento de novos métodos de administração. Seguindo esta tendência, uma fórmula nova e alternativa foi desenvolvida utilizando um produto liofilizado que contém esporos de D. flagrans e M. circinelloides para o controlo de nematodes gastrointestinais em cavalos. Após fabrico do produto e verificação da morfologia normal dos esporos, estes foram testados para crescimento in vitro. Um total de 20 placas de Petri foram semeadas com uma mistura de 0.1 g de produto e 0.5 ml de água em meio sólido. As placas foram mantidas a 25ºC em escuridão total e todas demonstraram desenvolvimento de novos esporos passados 10 dias. Após a verificação in vitro, o produto foi administrado per os a cavalos para observar o seu efeito nas contagens fecais de ovos (CFO) por grama (OPG). Assim, um grupo de 5 cavalos em pastoreio foi escolhido para receber 10 g de produto cada (com esporos de M. circinelloides e um total de cerca 105 clamidosporos de D. flagrans por cavalo) 3 vezes por semana, de setembro a março. Outro grupo de 7 cavalos numa pastagem adjacente foi utilizado como controlo. Após tratamento com unção contínua de Ivermectina em setembro de 2017, uma amostra fecal de cada cavalo foi colhida mensalmente e o CFO foi avaliado utilizando a técnica de McMaster modificado. Apenas ovos de nemátodes gastrointestinais, nomeadamente estrongilídeos, foram observados com esta técnica. A média de OPG de cada grupo foi comparada para cada mês e no total do estudo para observar o efeito de redução do tratamento fúngico. Diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre os dois grupos foram observadas em fevereiro, redução de 72%, março, redução de 64%, e no total, 66% de redução. Cavalos no grupo de teste só passaram o limiar de 300 OPG dois meses depois dos cavalos do grupo controlo. Em novembro e janeiro foram realizadas culturas fecais em todas as amostras, demonstrando apenas a existência de larvas de ciatostomíneos. Este estudo permitiu com sucesso o desenvolvimento de uma nova fórmula para administração oral de fungos parasiticidas para cavalos com base num produto liofilizado, aumentando as futuras possibilidades de desenvolvimento e aplicações de produtos. Novas e aperfeiçoadas formas de controlo biológico devem ser desenvolvidas e implementadas para aumentar o controlo de parasitas e diminuir os casos de resistência a anti-helmínticos.N/